The second wave of Covid will delay the recovery of air traffic until the end of fiscal year 23: Crisil

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The second wave of Covid will delay the recovery of air traffic until the end of fiscal year 23: Crisil


NEW DELHI: Ratings agency Crisil said Thursday air traffic It is expected to plummet in fiscal year 22 and to make a full recovery only for the fourth quarter of the next fiscal year due to “the debilitating consequences” of the second wave of Covid-19 in India.
The forecast is based on the analysis of data from the four main private airports: Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad, which accounted for around 90% of the air passenger traffic handled by private airports in India and more than half of all traffic. air in India in the last fiscal year.
Restrictions during the second wave sent passenger traffic at airports plummeting, with average daily national passenger traffic halving in May 2021 from February 2021, or just around 10% of levels. pre-pandemic observed in May 2019.
Crisil Ratings Senior Director Manish Gupta said: “The second wave will delay the revival of business travel and the recovery of international traffic, which accounts for more than half of total traffic. Given this backdrop, we now expect traffic volumes in this fiscal year to be approximately 60% of fiscal 2020 levels and recovery to pre-pandemic levels to occur only for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. ”
Traffic volumes are expected to rebound once the current distress curve begins to flatten out.
“An increase in domestic traffic was observed following the restart of airport operations in May 2020, and total passenger traffic reached approximately 60% of fiscal year 2020 levels by February 2021, within 9 months after the first national travel notice. And this time a much faster recovery is expected based on the ongoing vaccination campaign, the government’s push to limit the economic impact and the recovery trajectory observed in countries that have emerged from a second wave, ”said Crisil in a release.
Normalization in India is expected only for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. This will lead to loss of revenue of Rs 900 crore from the pre-second wave expectation of around Rs 7,500 crore of revenue in the fiscal year 2022.
Airport debt service obligations would double next fiscal year onwards as debt service for the ongoing capacity expansion will begin.

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