Warning Issued Sufficiently in Advance and Reasonably Higher Forecast Accuracy: Cyclone Tauktae Report | India News

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NEW DELHI: Amid Certain Questions About Cyclone Prediction Tauktae as a result of the ONGC tragedy of the ship, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) published on Thursday a fact sheet on the cyclone which hit the west coast last month, saying that “all kinds of adverse weather associated with these systems, including heavy rains, strong winds and storm surge, were well forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) well in advance. “.
Giving the national meteorologist a clean note, the report noted that “maritime interest bulletins” were issued by IMD area cyclone warning centers in Mumbai, Chennai and cyclone warning centers in Thiruvananthapuram and Ahmedabad to all stakeholders, including offshore and offshore community shipping well in advance.
Underlining that the accuracy of the track, landfall and intensity forecast was reasonably higher than that of previous recurring cyclones, the report containing all the technical details on the ‘extremely severe cyclonic storm’ Tauktae said warnings and updates were issued constantly from May 11 onwards. – six days before making landfall on the Gujarat coast on May 17 at dusk.

In issuing its “extended scope outlook”, the IMD had indicated on May 13 that the system would move towards the Gujarat coast and “affect areas including the southeast, central-east and northeast of the Arabian Sea” and areas to across and off Kerala Karnataka, Go to, Maharashtra and coasts of Gujarat.

“Accordingly, a likely impact was also issued in the extended range outlook for fishermen, boats and ports along the west coast of India,” the report said, giving a clear signal that authorities had sufficient leeway. to act on advance warnings. Although the report has not named ONGC as one of the recipients of those constant warnings about the trajectory and intensity of the cyclone, MoES officials said that all information and associated climate impact warnings had been shared with all agencies, including the oil PSU.
Four vessels that the ONGC put into service off the coast of Mumbai were left adrift on the high seas due to the impact of Cyclone Tauktae in the early morning of May 17, causing the loss of many lives. The incident had given rise to questions and counter-questions about the quality of the prediction and required action on the warnings.
The report also included details about the ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ Yaas that hit the east coast (Odisha and West Bengal) on May 26. He said that the forecast errors of the trajectory and the landing point and the weather were exceptionally minor compared to the ‘long period Average errors’ and the landing point and the weather forecast errors were almost zero. up to a 48 hour notice period.
With a track length of 1,100 km, the Yaas had affected relatively fewer areas compared to Tauktae, causing adverse weather in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Odisha and West Bengal (as of May 26) and Jharkhand. Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh after making landfall.

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